Economic assessment of grain production and export

   The bioeconomy laboratory actively cooperates with the USDA, aka predicts the growth of Ukrainian wheat production and export in 2024/25 MY and the reduction of these indicators in relation to corn. On August 12, 2024, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published an updated global forecast of the balance of major crops for the 2024/25 marketing year.
  According to USDA forecasts, in 2024/25, Ukraine's indicators for wheat will increase compared to the previous forecast: production - by 2.1 million tons to 21.6 million tons, export - by 1.0 million tons to 14.0 million tons The dynamics of corn will be the opposite: both production and export will decrease by 0.5 million tons to 27.2 million tons and 24.0 million tons, respectively. The updated forecast of the world wheat market for 2024/25 MY predicts, if compared with the previous month's forecast, an increase in opening stocks, production, trade and a slight decrease in ending stocks. Wheat production is forecast to increase by 2.1 million t to 798.3 million t, primarily due to increased production in Ukraine (+2.1 million t to 21.6 million t, due to larger-than-expected planted areas), Kazakhstan (+ 1.5 million t to 16.0 million t, higher yield forecast) and Australia (+1 million t to 30.0 million t), which will cover the decrease in production in the EU (-2.0 million t to 128.0 million t) , several months of heavy rains in France worsened the quality and yield) and the USA (-0.7 million tons to 53.9 million tons). World consumption increased by 4.1 million tonnes to a record 804.0 million tonnes, mainly due to increased feed and residual use in the EU, Kazakhstan and Ukraine. World trade increased by 2.0 million t to 214.9 million t, mainly due to increased exports by Australia (+1.0 million t to 23.0 million t) and Ukraine (+1.0 million t to 14.0 million t). Projected global ending stocks for 2024/25 were reduced by 0.6 Mt to 256.6 Mt, the lowest since FY 2015/16. According to updated forecasts on the world corn market in 2024/25 MR, a reduction in production, trade volumes and final stocks is expected. World production of corn will decrease by 5.0 million tons to 1,219.8 million tons due to reductions in the EU (-3.5 million tons to 60.5 million tons), Russia (-0.9 million tons to 14.1 million tons ), Serbia, Ukraine (-0.5 million tons to 27.2 million tons) and Moldova. For most of these countries, yields are projected to be lower due to heat and drought. At the same time, production volumes in the USA are increasing (+1.1 million tons to 384.7 million tons). The forecast for world corn exports has also decreased, but not significantly - by -0.3 million tons to 191.5 million tons. The main changes include an increase in US corn exports (+1.9 million tons to 58.4 million tons), at the same time as a decrease in exports EU (-0.5 million t to 4.0 million t), Serbia, Ukraine (-0.5 million t to 24.0 million t), Russia (-0.4 million t to 4.2 million t) and by India The forecast of world corn reserves is estimated at 310.2 million tons, which is 1.5 million tons lower than the previous estimate.
  Teachers of the department of economic theory, employees of the bioeconomy laboratory, graduate students, students and all interested parties of various faculties and universities took an active part in the discussion.

Mykola Talavyria,
Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor